Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 30.271877 33.728997 37.694516 42.646769 48.765208 56.218379 66.220953
2025-06-29 25.015753 29.265404 34.576418 41.926392 52.243640 66.959787 91.262113
2025-07-06 22.732451 27.667746 34.296102 44.359832 60.383033 87.611966 146.694924
2025-07-13 20.283466 25.317175 32.403629 43.875629 63.944486 103.422200 216.368671
2025-07-20 18.653547 23.781393 31.297847 44.185629 68.851483 125.499060 359.070610
2025-07-27 17.399616 22.578161 30.433447 44.601990 74.098481 153.708793 704.186806
2025-08-03 16.272842 21.408023 29.410791 44.453391 78.116913 184.160487 1772.590796
2025-08-10 15.256236 20.286993 28.296069 43.862751 80.903336 215.844002 10201.383737
2025-08-17 14.510272 19.506519 27.636846 44.005383 85.671727 267.148571 NaN
2025-08-24 13.795698 18.707156 26.841144 43.696663 89.152431 324.420879 NaN
2025-08-31 13.134528 17.937862 26.009451 43.148388 91.766697 390.110116 NaN
2025-09-07 12.563425 17.271533 25.291359 42.718943 94.674358 479.998789 NaN
2025-09-14 12.060256 16.691536 24.691089 42.498536 98.509777 625.029004 NaN
2025-09-21 11.515768 16.008071 23.838899 41.552958 99.362173 755.944544 NaN
2025-09-28 11.386962 16.016257 24.287845 43.846579 114.869150 1827.567781 NaN
2025-10-05 10.966993 15.495796 23.666147 43.329348 118.002871 3053.945184 NaN
2025-10-12 10.662211 15.156502 23.369764 43.615339 125.509623 10769.745854 NaN
2025-10-19 10.391360 14.859655 23.130355 44.015438 134.305184 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 10.090963 14.493133 22.718445 43.866956 140.154246 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.774823 14.082342 22.184632 43.287753 143.116018 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.540310 13.806570 21.910320 43.426803 151.380604 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.285475 13.481542 21.508785 43.124491 156.535664 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.028288 13.140885 21.051592 42.587820 159.689885 NaN NaN